NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMASS MASS
Points 72.2 80.4
Total Points   152.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.3 47.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.1 17.6
Points From Free Throws 19.8 15.3
Shooting UMASS MASS
Field Goals Made 23.5 29.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 65.7
Field Goal % 42.7% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 23.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 45.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 16.7 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 28.4%
Free Throws Made 19.8 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 26.6 22.4
Free Throw % 74.3% 68.2%
Ball Control UMASS MASS
Rebounds 35.9 39.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 14.9
Turnovers 13.2 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.0
Steals 5.6 8.4
Fouls 14.8 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: U Mass

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMASS MASS
Total Possessions 74.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.5 79.8
% of Possessions with UMASS MASS
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 19.4% 23.0%
Player Fouled 24.5% 20.0%
Turnover 17.8% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 11.3% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMASS MASS
Shot Blocked 6.2% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 37.1%