NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMASS ILST
Points 71.1 70.9
Total Points   142.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.6 40.6
Points From 3-Pointers 17.0 15.7
Points From Free Throws 14.4 14.5
Shooting UMASS ILST
Field Goals Made 25.5 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 60.1
Field Goal % 45.6% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 40.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 26.7%
Free Throws Made 14.4 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 19.9
Free Throw % 74.3% 73.0%
Ball Control UMASS ILST
Rebounds 35.7 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 10.9
Turnovers 11.3 9.0
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.9
Steals 4.7 6.4
Fouls 15.0 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMASS ILST
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 71.9
% of Possessions with UMASS ILST
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 49.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 23.9%
Player Fouled 22.7% 21.4%
Turnover 16.2% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMASS ILST
Shot Blocked 4.9% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 28.2% 29.3%