NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMASS UMBC
Points 84.1 77.6
Total Points   161.7
Points From 2-Pointers 47.0 47.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.9 21.3
Points From Free Throws 17.2 9.4
Shooting UMASS UMBC
Field Goals Made 30.1 30.6
Field Goals Attempted 66.5 68.7
Field Goal % 45.3% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 23.5 23.5
2 Pointers Attempted 45.6 46.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 17.2 9.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.1 13.8
Free Throw % 74.3% 67.9%
Ball Control UMASS UMBC
Rebounds 44.0 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 31.2 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 9.1
Turnovers 10.8 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.9 4.3
Steals 7.2 5.2
Fouls 12.6 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Mass Lowell

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMASS UMBC
Total Possessions 78.5
Effective Scoring Chances 80.6 76.8
% of Possessions with UMASS UMBC
2 Point Attempt 49.0% 52.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 24.8%
Player Fouled 19.0% 16.1%
Turnover 13.7% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMASS UMBC
Shot Blocked 6.3% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 32.5% 22.5%