NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMASS BU
Points 74.2 66.5
Total Points   140.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 34.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 20.0
Points From Free Throws 19.6 12.0
Shooting UMASS BU
Field Goals Made 24.1 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 52.7 62.6
Field Goal % 45.7% 38.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.0 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 42.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 29.7%
Free Throws Made 19.6 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 26.3 16.6
Free Throw % 74.3% 72.2%
Ball Control UMASS BU
Rebounds 38.1 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 30.1 24.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 10.8
Turnovers 11.5 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.9 4.0
Steals 6.0 7.5
Fouls 13.0 18.2

Playing Style Advantage: Mass Lowell

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMASS BU
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 72.7
% of Possessions with UMASS BU
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 26.6%
Player Fouled 25.3% 18.1%
Turnover 16.0% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMASS BU
Shot Blocked 6.6% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 26.3%