NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMASS UNH
Points 81.1 72.8
Total Points   153.9
Points From 2-Pointers 47.4 37.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.5 22.4
Points From Free Throws 16.2 13.2
Shooting UMASS UNH
Field Goals Made 29.5 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 64.9
Field Goal % 49.4% 40.1%
2 Pointers Made 23.7 18.6
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 58.2% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 25.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 29.1%
Free Throws Made 16.2 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 17.4
Free Throw % 74.3% 76.0%
Ball Control UMASS UNH
Rebounds 41.4 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 31.9 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 8.7
Turnovers 12.5 10.6
Blocked Shots 5.2 2.3
Steals 7.1 7.9
Fouls 13.9 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Mass Lowell

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMASS UNH
Total Possessions 76.6
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 74.7
% of Possessions with UMASS UNH
2 Point Attempt 46.8% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 29.3%
Player Fouled 19.9% 18.2%
Turnover 16.3% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMASS UNH
Shot Blocked 3.6% 8.9%
Offensive Rebound 28.3% 21.4%