NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMASS NCST
Points 69.7 82.9
Total Points   152.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 48.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 17.9
Points From Free Throws 16.0 16.5
Shooting UMASS NCST
Field Goals Made 24.0 30.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 65.3
Field Goal % 42.1% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 24.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 47.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.1% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.4 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 16.0 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 22.5
Free Throw % 74.3% 73.3%
Ball Control UMASS NCST
Rebounds 36.1 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 11.9
Turnovers 13.8 7.2
Blocked Shots 3.0 5.3
Steals 4.1 9.0
Fouls 14.3 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMASS NCST
Total Possessions 74.1
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 78.8
% of Possessions with UMASS NCST
2 Point Attempt 46.1% 54.0%
3 Point Attempt 20.3% 20.9%
Player Fouled 21.1% 19.3%
Turnover 18.6% 9.7%
Opponent Steal 12.2% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMASS NCST
Shot Blocked 8.2% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 30.9%