NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTSA TXST
Points 74.0 74.8
Total Points   148.8
Points From 2-Pointers 32.1 43.4
Points From 3-Pointers 23.8 15.7
Points From Free Throws 18.0 15.7
Shooting UTSA TXST
Field Goals Made 24.0 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 60.6
Field Goal % 41.2% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 33.2 45.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.4% 47.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 14.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 18.0 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 25.3 22.4
Free Throw % 71.1% 70.3%
Ball Control UTSA TXST
Rebounds 38.4 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 9.6
Turnovers 10.7 9.4
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.1
Steals 5.0 5.8
Fouls 15.7 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: UTSA

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTSA TXST
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.5 73.5
% of Possessions with UTSA TXST
2 Point Attempt 38.7% 53.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 17.6%
Player Fouled 22.5% 21.4%
Turnover 14.6% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTSA TXST
Shot Blocked 6.9% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 26.0%