NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTSA UNM
Points 70.1 88.7
Total Points   158.8
Points From 2-Pointers 30.4 49.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.2 22.3
Points From Free Throws 15.5 16.5
Shooting UTSA UNM
Field Goals Made 23.3 32.4
Field Goals Attempted 63.8 67.7
Field Goal % 36.5% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 24.9
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 47.1
2 Point Shooting % 41.6% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 27.3 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.6% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 15.5 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 22.8
Free Throw % 71.1% 72.3%
Ball Control UTSA UNM
Rebounds 38.1 43.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 31.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 11.8
Turnovers 11.1 6.9
Blocked Shots 4.8 7.2
Steals 4.0 6.7
Fouls 15.5 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: UTSA

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTSA UNM
Total Possessions 75.7
Effective Scoring Chances 76.0 80.7
% of Possessions with UTSA UNM
2 Point Attempt 40.6% 52.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 23.1%
Player Fouled 19.4% 20.5%
Turnover 14.7% 9.1%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTSA UNM
Shot Blocked 10.8% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 30.7%