NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTSA UNT
Points 69.4 78.8
Total Points   148.2
Points From 2-Pointers 28.0 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 25.4 29.0
Points From Free Throws 16.0 14.4
Shooting UTSA UNT
Field Goals Made 22.5 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 60.8
Field Goal % 39.4% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 14.0 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 31.8 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 43.9% 47.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 25.1 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 40.6%
Free Throws Made 16.0 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 19.2
Free Throw % 71.1% 75.1%
Ball Control UTSA UNT
Rebounds 37.1 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 10.2
Turnovers 10.3 7.7
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.3
Steals 4.3 5.7
Fouls 14.0 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: UTSA

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTSA UNT
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 71.8
% of Possessions with UTSA UNT
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 29.3%
Player Fouled 21.7% 20.2%
Turnover 14.9% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTSA UNT
Shot Blocked 7.2% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 30.7% 28.5%