NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTSA FAU
Points 74.3 88.4
Total Points   162.7
Points From 2-Pointers 33.1 43.5
Points From 3-Pointers 27.7 27.1
Points From Free Throws 13.5 17.8
Shooting UTSA FAU
Field Goals Made 25.8 30.8
Field Goals Attempted 66.0 62.4
Field Goal % 39.1% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.6% 57.6%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 28.1 24.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 13.5 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 24.5
Free Throw % 71.1% 72.6%
Ball Control UTSA FAU
Rebounds 37.6 40.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 30.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 10.3
Turnovers 9.6 8.0
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.8
Steals 3.9 5.6
Fouls 16.8 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: UTSA

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTSA FAU
Total Possessions 74.7
Effective Scoring Chances 77.6 77.0
% of Possessions with UTSA FAU
2 Point Attempt 42.7% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 28.6%
Player Fouled 18.9% 22.5%
Turnover 12.9% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTSA FAU
Shot Blocked 6.2% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 29.0%