NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOL VALP
Points 80.4 74.6
Total Points   155.0
Points From 2-Pointers 47.0 42.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.0 23.2
Points From Free Throws 15.4 8.7
Shooting TOL VALP
Field Goals Made 29.5 29.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 61.3
Field Goal % 49.9% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 23.5 21.3
2 Pointers Attempted 43.8 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 53.6% 54.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 15.3 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.4% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 15.4 8.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 12.3
Free Throw % 74.2% 70.2%
Ball Control TOL VALP
Rebounds 35.1 31.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 8.7
Turnovers 9.8 10.8
Blocked Shots 1.4 4.4
Steals 6.3 5.2
Fouls 12.2 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Valparaiso

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOL VALP
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 69.5
% of Possessions with TOL VALP
2 Point Attempt 52.9% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 18.5% 27.8%
Player Fouled 21.8% 17.0%
Turnover 13.6% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOL VALP
Shot Blocked 7.2% 2.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 25.2%