NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOL OAK
Points 78.3 82.1
Total Points   160.3
Points From 2-Pointers 41.8 42.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.9 27.8
Points From Free Throws 14.5 12.0
Shooting TOL OAK
Field Goals Made 28.2 30.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 61.2
Field Goal % 46.8% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.9 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.6 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 58.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.7 25.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 14.5 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 15.7
Free Throw % 74.2% 76.4%
Ball Control TOL OAK
Rebounds 32.4 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 9.7
Turnovers 9.4 10.3
Blocked Shots 1.8 3.8
Steals 5.5 6.0
Fouls 13.3 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOL OAK
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 71.3
% of Possessions with TOL OAK
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 30.3%
Player Fouled 20.8% 18.5%
Turnover 13.0% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOL OAK
Shot Blocked 6.3% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 29.4%