NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOL XAV
Points 78.0 87.4
Total Points   165.5
Points From 2-Pointers 46.1 51.8
Points From 3-Pointers 16.6 21.5
Points From Free Throws 15.3 14.1
Shooting TOL XAV
Field Goals Made 28.6 33.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.6 61.1
Field Goal % 46.4% 54.1%
2 Pointers Made 23.1 25.9
2 Pointers Attempted 45.7 41.6
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 62.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 15.9 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 15.3 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 18.6
Free Throw % 74.2% 75.8%
Ball Control TOL XAV
Rebounds 29.5 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 20.9 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 9.7
Turnovers 9.6 11.3
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.5
Steals 6.1 5.9
Fouls 15.0 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOL XAV
Total Possessions 74.4
Effective Scoring Chances 73.4 72.8
% of Possessions with TOL XAV
2 Point Attempt 53.9% 48.9%
3 Point Attempt 18.8% 23.0%
Player Fouled 21.2% 20.2%
Turnover 12.9% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOL XAV
Shot Blocked 7.5% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 31.7%