NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOL UNI
Points 75.3 80.1
Total Points   155.5
Points From 2-Pointers 41.1 45.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 21.4
Points From Free Throws 14.9 13.5
Shooting TOL UNI
Field Goals Made 27.0 29.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 56.3
Field Goal % 47.7% 52.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 22.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 35.9
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 63.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 14.9 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 19.0
Free Throw % 74.2% 70.8%
Ball Control TOL UNI
Rebounds 29.9 32.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 7.1
Turnovers 9.9 10.1
Blocked Shots 1.8 3.6
Steals 6.1 5.9
Fouls 15.1 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOL UNI
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 68.0
% of Possessions with TOL UNI
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 25.9%
Player Fouled 23.2% 21.3%
Turnover 13.9% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOL UNI
Shot Blocked 6.4% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 23.7%