NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOL M-OH
Points 76.3 73.9
Total Points   150.2
Points From 2-Pointers 42.5 38.6
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 25.0
Points From Free Throws 16.2 10.3
Shooting TOL M-OH
Field Goals Made 27.1 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 56.9
Field Goal % 47.0% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 21.2 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 40.5 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.5% 56.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 17.2 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 16.2 10.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 14.4
Free Throw % 74.2% 71.5%
Ball Control TOL M-OH
Rebounds 34.5 30.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 6.4
Turnovers 10.0 11.9
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.8
Steals 6.9 5.6
Fouls 14.3 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOL M-OH
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 65.8
% of Possessions with TOL M-OH
2 Point Attempt 49.2% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.9% 28.5%
Player Fouled 22.9% 20.1%
Turnover 14.1% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOL M-OH
Shot Blocked 6.7% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.1% 20.4%