NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOL MSU
Points 67.2 84.4
Total Points   151.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.6 52.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 21.1
Points From Free Throws 13.9 11.2
Shooting TOL MSU
Field Goals Made 23.6 33.1
Field Goals Attempted 56.2 60.0
Field Goal % 41.9% 55.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 26.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 41.7
2 Point Shooting % 45.6% 62.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 13.9 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 15.5
Free Throw % 74.2% 72.5%
Ball Control TOL MSU
Rebounds 27.4 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 19.8 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 9.6
Turnovers 10.8 9.6
Blocked Shots 1.7 5.4
Steals 5.1 6.5
Fouls 13.9 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOL MSU
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 70.0
% of Possessions with TOL MSU
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 52.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 22.8%
Player Fouled 21.9% 19.9%
Turnover 15.5% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOL MSU
Shot Blocked 9.1% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 32.8%