NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOL AKR
Points 74.9 77.5
Total Points   152.4
Points From 2-Pointers 43.9 43.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.1 22.7
Points From Free Throws 14.9 11.7
Shooting TOL AKR
Field Goals Made 27.3 29.1
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 57.1
Field Goal % 47.3% 51.0%
2 Pointers Made 21.9 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 41.4 33.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 63.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 14.9 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 16.1
Free Throw % 74.2% 72.9%
Ball Control TOL AKR
Rebounds 30.4 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.4 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 8.2
Turnovers 9.0 11.1
Blocked Shots 1.6 3.9
Steals 5.8 4.5
Fouls 14.4 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOL AKR
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 67.4
% of Possessions with TOL AKR
2 Point Attempt 51.8% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 20.4% 29.6%
Player Fouled 24.0% 20.5%
Turnover 12.8% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOL AKR
Shot Blocked 6.9% 2.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 26.7%