NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring KC NDSU
Points 73.1 69.0
Total Points   142.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.8 33.7
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 18.4
Points From Free Throws 12.1 16.9
Shooting KC NDSU
Field Goals Made 26.6 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 49.8
Field Goal % 45.5% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 31.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.9% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 17.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 12.1 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 22.8
Free Throw % 72.1% 74.1%
Ball Control KC NDSU
Rebounds 33.4 31.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 5.7
Turnovers 9.0 12.1
Blocked Shots 4.6 1.1
Steals 5.4 3.5
Fouls 18.5 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Kansas City

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats KC NDSU
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 62.9
% of Possessions with KC NDSU
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 41.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 23.3%
Player Fouled 20.3% 26.7%
Turnover 13.1% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken KC NDSU
Shot Blocked 2.2% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 19.1%