NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring QNC GMU
Points 66.6 81.7
Total Points   148.3
Points From 2-Pointers 27.9 45.6
Points From 3-Pointers 25.2 20.4
Points From Free Throws 13.5 15.7
Shooting QNC GMU
Field Goals Made 22.3 29.6
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 56.3
Field Goal % 38.4% 52.6%
2 Pointers Made 13.9 22.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.3 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 43.2% 62.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 25.8 19.9
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 13.5 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 21.2
Free Throw % 71.0% 74.1%
Ball Control QNC GMU
Rebounds 29.5 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 9.4
Turnovers 10.2 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.3
Steals 6.1 5.3
Fouls 16.8 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Queens

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats QNC GMU
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 69.3
% of Possessions with QNC GMU
2 Point Attempt 39.7% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.8% 24.6%
Player Fouled 22.1% 23.9%
Turnover 14.6% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken QNC GMU
Shot Blocked 7.7% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 31.7%