NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNLV CAL
Points 74.6 71.3
Total Points   145.8
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 33.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 25.1
Points From Free Throws 15.5 13.1
Shooting UNLV CAL
Field Goals Made 26.2 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 61.5
Field Goal % 45.3% 40.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 38.5 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 26.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 15.5 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 17.9
Free Throw % 73.0% 73.2%
Ball Control UNLV CAL
Rebounds 35.9 37.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 11.8
Turnovers 9.1 10.1
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.0
Steals 4.6 5.3
Fouls 13.3 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNLV CAL
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 72.4
% of Possessions with UNLV CAL
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 41.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 31.4%
Player Fouled 21.2% 18.8%
Turnover 12.8% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNLV CAL
Shot Blocked 5.0% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 30.2%