NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNLV NEV
Points 66.3 69.6
Total Points   135.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.7 33.6
Points From 3-Pointers 17.8 19.5
Points From Free Throws 15.8 16.4
Shooting UNLV NEV
Field Goals Made 22.3 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 52.8 52.1
Field Goal % 42.2% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.2 33.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.8% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.6 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 15.8 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 23.1
Free Throw % 73.0% 71.2%
Ball Control UNLV NEV
Rebounds 32.3 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 9.3
Turnovers 10.1 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.4
Steals 4.4 5.6
Fouls 17.4 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Nevada

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNLV NEV
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 65.9 66.2
% of Possessions with UNLV NEV
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.1% 24.6%
Player Fouled 24.0% 26.0%
Turnover 15.1% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNLV NEV
Shot Blocked 6.7% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 28.5%