NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SIE HARV
Points 60.9 70.6
Total Points   131.5
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 20.5
Points From Free Throws 10.1 14.4
Shooting SIE HARV
Field Goals Made 22.2 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 56.9
Field Goal % 37.2% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 35.8
2 Point Shooting % 41.8% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 29.3% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 10.1 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 14.8 20.7
Free Throw % 68.7% 69.8%
Ball Control SIE HARV
Rebounds 39.0 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 13.2 9.6
Turnovers 12.4 9.4
Blocked Shots 5.0 4.2
Steals 4.8 7.8
Fouls 14.7 12.1

Playing Style Advantage: Siena

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SIE HARV
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 68.8
% of Possessions with SIE HARV
2 Point Attempt 45.2% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 26.2%
Player Fouled 17.6% 21.4%
Turnover 18.1% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 11.3% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SIE HARV
Shot Blocked 7.5% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 33.4% 27.1%