NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SIE FAIR
Points 62.4 75.5
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.0 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 26.6
Points From Free Throws 9.3 12.1
Shooting SIE FAIR
Field Goals Made 23.5 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 54.0 61.2
Field Goal % 43.6% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.9% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 25.0
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 9.3 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 13.5 16.3
Free Throw % 68.7% 74.0%
Ball Control SIE FAIR
Rebounds 37.0 31.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 22.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 9.7
Turnovers 15.3 7.3
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.2
Steals 3.8 10.2
Fouls 12.5 11.8

Playing Style Advantage: Fairfield

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SIE FAIR
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 63.7 70.8
% of Possessions with SIE FAIR
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 31.5%
Player Fouled 17.3% 18.3%
Turnover 22.4% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 14.9% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SIE FAIR
Shot Blocked 3.6% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 32.6% 27.0%