NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SIU ILST
Points 68.7 65.4
Total Points   134.1
Points From 2-Pointers 32.0 38.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 11.7
Points From Free Throws 12.9 15.7
Shooting SIU ILST
Field Goals Made 23.9 22.9
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 50.7
Field Goal % 45.2% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.0 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 28.1 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 56.9% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 3.9
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 14.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 26.8%
Free Throws Made 12.9 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 21.5
Free Throw % 77.2% 73.0%
Ball Control SIU ILST
Rebounds 30.5 31.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 8.0
Turnovers 9.5 9.4
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.5
Steals 4.1 4.6
Fouls 17.9 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SIU ILST
Total Possessions 65.1
Effective Scoring Chances 63.1 63.6
% of Possessions with SIU ILST
2 Point Attempt 38.2% 48.8%
3 Point Attempt 33.8% 19.5%
Player Fouled 23.5% 27.4%
Turnover 14.5% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken SIU ILST
Shot Blocked 5.1% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 25.6%