NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SIU INST
Points 73.1 82.5
Total Points   155.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 43.9
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 21.1
Points From Free Throws 13.1 17.5
Shooting SIU INST
Field Goals Made 26.0 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.7 53.0
Field Goal % 45.8% 54.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 22.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.4% 67.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 13.1 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 21.7
Free Throw % 77.2% 80.7%
Ball Control SIU INST
Rebounds 27.2 31.8
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 6.4 5.4
Turnovers 9.7 10.1
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.0
Steals 5.0 4.9
Fouls 17.7 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: S Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SIU INST
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 65.6
% of Possessions with SIU INST
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 42.5%
3 Point Attempt 29.6% 26.4%
Player Fouled 22.3% 25.2%
Turnover 13.8% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken SIU INST
Shot Blocked 3.8% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 19.5% 20.6%