NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SIU UALR
Points 73.1 70.1
Total Points   143.2
Points From 2-Pointers 28.4 44.5
Points From 3-Pointers 27.1 12.1
Points From Free Throws 17.7 13.5
Shooting SIU UALR
Field Goals Made 23.2 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 55.8
Field Goal % 42.5% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 14.2 22.2
2 Pointers Attempted 28.3 42.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.1% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 4.0
3 Pointers Attempted 26.2 12.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 17.7 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 18.5
Free Throw % 77.2% 73.1%
Ball Control SIU UALR
Rebounds 31.8 34.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 8.9
Turnovers 10.3 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.8 5.2
Steals 5.0 4.7
Fouls 15.5 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: AR Lit Rock

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SIU UALR
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 67.3
% of Possessions with SIU UALR
2 Point Attempt 35.4% 53.9%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 16.3%
Player Fouled 23.8% 22.3%
Turnover 14.8% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken SIU UALR
Shot Blocked 9.4% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 27.7%