NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring RUTG MSU
Points 57.7 68.8
Total Points   126.4
Points From 2-Pointers 28.9 35.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.7 20.8
Points From Free Throws 12.1 12.9
Shooting RUTG MSU
Field Goals Made 20.0 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 57.9
Field Goal % 35.2% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 14.4 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 39.7% 45.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 27.2% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 12.1 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 17.8
Free Throw % 67.7% 72.5%
Ball Control RUTG MSU
Rebounds 34.2 40.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 11.5
Turnovers 11.2 11.4
Blocked Shots 4.8 4.7
Steals 5.7 6.9
Fouls 14.0 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats RUTG MSU
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.5 68.7
% of Possessions with RUTG MSU
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 23.5%
Player Fouled 20.6% 20.3%
Turnover 16.3% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken RUTG MSU
Shot Blocked 8.4% 8.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 32.2%