NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USI BGSU
Points 68.9 74.3
Total Points   143.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.5 34.6
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 16.5
Points From Free Throws 14.0 23.2
Shooting USI BGSU
Field Goals Made 23.9 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 52.4
Field Goal % 41.8% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 29.7%
Free Throws Made 14.0 23.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 32.0
Free Throw % 75.1% 72.7%
Ball Control USI BGSU
Rebounds 33.5 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 9.6
Turnovers 11.7 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.6
Steals 5.3 6.1
Fouls 20.5 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Bowling Grn

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USI BGSU
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 68.7 71.8
% of Possessions with USI BGSU
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 40.9%
3 Point Attempt 24.1% 22.4%
Player Fouled 21.7% 28.5%
Turnover 16.2% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken USI BGSU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 23.4% 27.6%