NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USI WIU
Points 63.6 68.1
Total Points   131.7
Points From 2-Pointers 32.5 33.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.5 16.8
Points From Free Throws 13.6 17.4
Shooting USI WIU
Field Goals Made 22.1 22.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.1 53.5
Field Goal % 36.8% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 41.3 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 39.4% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 17.1
3 Point Shooting % 30.9% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 13.6 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 27.9
Free Throw % 75.1% 62.4%
Ball Control USI WIU
Rebounds 34.3 42.8
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 29.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 13.3
Turnovers 9.3 11.4
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.7
Steals 6.3 4.8
Fouls 18.8 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: W Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USI WIU
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 71.4
% of Possessions with USI WIU
2 Point Attempt 50.5% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.0% 20.3%
Player Fouled 20.7% 27.0%
Turnover 13.4% 16.3%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken USI WIU
Shot Blocked 8.9% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 35.7%