NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WAG BRY
Points 61.1 71.7
Total Points   132.9
Points From 2-Pointers 29.0 37.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 22.5
Points From Free Throws 11.7 11.4
Shooting WAG BRY
Field Goals Made 21.3 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 64.6 58.2
Field Goal % 33.0% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 41.6 33.6
2 Point Shooting % 34.9% 56.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 30.4%
Free Throws Made 11.7 11.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 16.9
Free Throw % 69.5% 67.6%
Ball Control WAG BRY
Rebounds 39.2 41.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 34.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 7.1
Turnovers 8.6 10.0
Blocked Shots 2.3 5.2
Steals 5.8 3.9
Fouls 14.9 12.1

Playing Style Advantage: Bryant

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WAG BRY
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 74.2 68.5
% of Possessions with WAG BRY
2 Point Attempt 49.0% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.2% 31.1%
Player Fouled 17.0% 20.9%
Turnover 12.0% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken WAG BRY
Shot Blocked 9.1% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 20.4%