NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCW WCU
Points 73.4 74.0
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 38.8
Points From 3-Pointers 17.1 23.8
Points From Free Throws 17.0 11.4
Shooting UNCW WCU
Field Goals Made 25.3 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 59.1
Field Goal % 43.5% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 40.2 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 20.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 39.3%
Free Throws Made 17.0 11.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 16.3
Free Throw % 77.5% 70.0%
Ball Control UNCW WCU
Rebounds 33.1 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 26.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 10.2
Turnovers 5.9 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.1
Steals 4.5 2.2
Fouls 14.0 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: W Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCW WCU
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 69.4
% of Possessions with UNCW WCU
2 Point Attempt 51.5% 49.0%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 25.4%
Player Fouled 24.2% 20.5%
Turnover 8.6% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 3.2% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCW WCU
Shot Blocked 3.6% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 29.5%