NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCW CCU
Points 81.2 70.7
Total Points   151.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 39.4
Points From 3-Pointers 29.0 18.9
Points From Free Throws 17.0 12.4
Shooting UNCW CCU
Field Goals Made 27.3 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 62.7 56.6
Field Goal % 43.5% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 38.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.0% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 30.7 17.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 17.0 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 17.9
Free Throw % 77.5% 69.4%
Ball Control UNCW CCU
Rebounds 36.0 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 9.1
Turnovers 6.2 12.0
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.0
Steals 7.1 3.1
Fouls 14.4 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Coastal Car

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCW CCU
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 76.1 68.0
% of Possessions with UNCW CCU
2 Point Attempt 38.5% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 37.0% 22.1%
Player Fouled 21.5% 20.4%
Turnover 8.7% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 4.4% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCW CCU
Shot Blocked 3.5% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 27.1%