NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCW TOWS
Points 68.5 67.4
Total Points   135.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.8 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 19.0
Points From Free Throws 15.1 13.5
Shooting UNCW TOWS
Field Goals Made 23.2 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 55.0
Field Goal % 42.2% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 47.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 15.1 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 20.3
Free Throw % 77.5% 66.3%
Ball Control UNCW TOWS
Rebounds 30.2 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 21.1 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 14.0
Turnovers 7.6 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.5
Steals 5.3 3.6
Fouls 14.0 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Wilmgton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCW TOWS
Total Possessions 65.1
Effective Scoring Chances 66.6 68.5
% of Possessions with UNCW TOWS
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 22.7%
Player Fouled 24.7% 21.6%
Turnover 11.7% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCW TOWS
Shot Blocked 6.4% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 39.8%