NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCW CWM
Points 79.8 67.0
Total Points   146.8
Points From 2-Pointers 41.6 29.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.2 24.7
Points From Free Throws 17.0 12.3
Shooting UNCW CWM
Field Goals Made 27.9 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.9 54.9
Field Goal % 49.8% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 15.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 29.8
2 Point Shooting % 59.9% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 25.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 17.0 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 18.2
Free Throw % 77.5% 67.7%
Ball Control UNCW CWM
Rebounds 34.9 31.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 21.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 9.6
Turnovers 6.7 10.0
Blocked Shots 2.9 1.4
Steals 5.2 2.8
Fouls 15.0 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Wm & Mary

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCW CWM
Total Possessions 66.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.5 66.2
% of Possessions with UNCW CWM
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 38.6%
3 Point Attempt 27.6% 32.5%
Player Fouled 24.4% 22.5%
Turnover 10.0% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 4.2% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCW CWM
Shot Blocked 2.5% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 30.8% 27.3%