NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STON AMCC
Points 72.2 67.2
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.3 33.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.6 18.7
Points From Free Throws 17.3 14.9
Shooting STON AMCC
Field Goals Made 24.2 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.2 62.3
Field Goal % 45.4% 37.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 42.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 39.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 17.3 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 20.8
Free Throw % 72.8% 71.6%
Ball Control STON AMCC
Rebounds 37.2 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.9 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 12.5
Turnovers 11.1 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.0
Steals 5.2 7.4
Fouls 14.3 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Stony Brook

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STON AMCC
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 75.1
% of Possessions with STON AMCC
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.5% 23.4%
Player Fouled 24.9% 20.0%
Turnover 15.5% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken STON AMCC
Shot Blocked 3.3% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 29.5%