NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STON GMU
Points 64.5 71.7
Total Points   136.2
Points From 2-Pointers 29.1 32.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.0 24.7
Points From Free Throws 12.4 14.8
Shooting STON GMU
Field Goals Made 22.2 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 55.8
Field Goal % 39.7% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 14.6 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 42.7% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 12.4 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 19.9
Free Throw % 72.8% 74.1%
Ball Control STON GMU
Rebounds 32.7 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 10.2
Turnovers 9.3 9.3
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.3
Steals 5.4 5.2
Fouls 14.8 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Stony Brook

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STON GMU
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.6 68.0
% of Possessions with STON GMU
2 Point Attempt 44.4% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 29.6%
Player Fouled 20.8% 22.0%
Turnover 13.8% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken STON GMU
Shot Blocked 4.1% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 29.7%