NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STON SPU
Points 66.7 64.7
Total Points   131.3
Points From 2-Pointers 32.1 28.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.7 21.3
Points From Free Throws 16.9 15.1
Shooting STON SPU
Field Goals Made 22.0 21.3
Field Goals Attempted 51.9 57.9
Field Goal % 42.3% 36.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 14.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.6% 37.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.5 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 16.9 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.1 21.2
Free Throw % 72.8% 71.2%
Ball Control STON SPU
Rebounds 35.8 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 12.5
Turnovers 10.6 9.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.4
Steals 4.9 5.8
Fouls 15.0 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: St Peters

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STON SPU
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.8 71.1
% of Possessions with STON SPU
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 24.8%
Player Fouled 25.0% 22.0%
Turnover 15.6% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken STON SPU
Shot Blocked 6.0% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.0% 31.2%