NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STON UMASS
Points 74.1 74.9
Total Points   149.0
Points From 2-Pointers 41.4 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 21.3
Points From Free Throws 13.5 17.2
Shooting STON UMASS
Field Goals Made 27.1 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 64.0 59.8
Field Goal % 42.4% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.7 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 43.9 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 13.5 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 23.1
Free Throw % 72.8% 74.3%
Ball Control STON UMASS
Rebounds 36.9 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 10.8
Turnovers 8.7 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.0
Steals 6.8 5.7
Fouls 15.6 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Mass Lowell

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STON UMASS
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 75.2 73.9
% of Possessions with STON UMASS
2 Point Attempt 51.7% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.6% 23.9%
Player Fouled 18.1% 21.2%
Turnover 11.8% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken STON UMASS
Shot Blocked 5.1% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 28.8%