NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FSU LOU
Points 80.2 71.2
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 43.6 35.3
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 15.4
Points From Free Throws 18.3 20.6
Shooting FSU LOU
Field Goals Made 27.9 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 52.2
Field Goal % 50.6% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 21.8 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 58.4% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 5.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.9 16.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 18.3 20.6
Free Throws Attempted 25.9 27.7
Free Throw % 70.5% 74.2%
Ball Control FSU LOU
Rebounds 31.5 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 10.1
Turnovers 11.1 14.9
Blocked Shots 4.6 2.0
Steals 9.9 4.7
Fouls 19.4 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Florida St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FSU LOU
Total Possessions 74.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 69.3
% of Possessions with FSU LOU
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 42.0%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 18.7%
Player Fouled 24.2% 26.2%
Turnover 15.0% 20.1%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 13.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken FSU LOU
Shot Blocked 3.9% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 30.5%