NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FSU UVA
Points 62.4 66.0
Total Points   128.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.3 34.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.0 19.7
Points From Free Throws 12.0 11.5
Shooting FSU UVA
Field Goals Made 22.7 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 57.6
Field Goal % 41.1% 41.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.8% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 18.2 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 27.4% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 12.0 11.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 18.5
Free Throw % 70.5% 62.1%
Ball Control FSU UVA
Rebounds 36.1 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 10.6
Turnovers 11.1 9.3
Blocked Shots 4.4 4.3
Steals 6.3 5.6
Fouls 13.7 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Florida St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FSU UVA
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 65.5 68.5
% of Possessions with FSU UVA
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 49.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.3% 23.2%
Player Fouled 20.5% 20.4%
Turnover 16.6% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken FSU UVA
Shot Blocked 7.7% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 28.4%