NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FSU ND
Points 70.4 67.3
Total Points   137.7
Points From 2-Pointers 40.8 27.7
Points From 3-Pointers 15.3 24.2
Points From Free Throws 14.4 15.4
Shooting FSU ND
Field Goals Made 25.5 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 53.2
Field Goal % 44.7% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 13.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.7 30.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 45.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 17.4 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 29.3% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 14.4 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 20.9
Free Throw % 70.5% 73.7%
Ball Control FSU ND
Rebounds 32.4 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 10.8
Turnovers 9.4 14.5
Blocked Shots 5.1 1.9
Steals 8.4 4.7
Fouls 15.5 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Florida St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FSU ND
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 66.2
% of Possessions with FSU ND
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 36.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.8% 27.6%
Player Fouled 22.2% 22.2%
Turnover 13.4% 20.7%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 12.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken FSU ND
Shot Blocked 3.7% 9.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 31.8%