NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FSU MIA
Points 76.2 75.2
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 41.1 34.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 27.2
Points From Free Throws 12.4 13.2
Shooting FSU MIA
Field Goals Made 28.1 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 62.1 59.2
Field Goal % 45.3% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 34.9
2 Point Shooting % 53.6% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 24.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 12.4 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 18.5
Free Throw % 70.5% 71.6%
Ball Control FSU MIA
Rebounds 34.8 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 10.9
Turnovers 10.7 13.7
Blocked Shots 4.4 2.4
Steals 9.2 5.7
Fouls 15.1 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FSU MIA
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 73.2 70.9
% of Possessions with FSU MIA
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 40.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 28.2%
Player Fouled 18.0% 20.6%
Turnover 14.5% 18.6%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 12.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken FSU MIA
Shot Blocked 4.2% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 28.0% 30.9%