NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FSU UNC
Points 69.2 83.8
Total Points   153.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 38.2
Points From 3-Pointers 15.1 24.0
Points From Free Throws 15.0 21.6
Shooting FSU UNC
Field Goals Made 24.6 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 59.7
Field Goal % 41.3% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 42.2 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.4% 49.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.4 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 29.0% 37.9%
Free Throws Made 15.0 21.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 28.9
Free Throw % 70.5% 74.8%
Ball Control FSU UNC
Rebounds 30.6 44.3
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 13.7
Turnovers 10.3 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.4 3.3
Steals 6.4 4.9
Fouls 18.6 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FSU UNC
Total Possessions 74.6
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 77.4
% of Possessions with FSU UNC
2 Point Attempt 50.4% 42.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.8% 23.4%
Player Fouled 22.9% 24.9%
Turnover 13.8% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken FSU UNC
Shot Blocked 5.6% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.4% 37.6%