NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LIU GMU
Points 56.3 79.3
Total Points   135.5
Points From 2-Pointers 29.8 41.7
Points From 3-Pointers 15.5 17.0
Points From Free Throws 11.0 20.6
Shooting LIU GMU
Field Goals Made 20.1 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 52.8
Field Goal % 36.1% 50.2%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.2 34.8
2 Point Shooting % 39.0% 60.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.4 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 29.6% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 11.0 20.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 27.8
Free Throw % 66.9% 74.1%
Ball Control LIU GMU
Rebounds 28.0 40.6
Rebounds - Defensive 20.1 30.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 10.2
Turnovers 11.7 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.9
Steals 5.8 6.5
Fouls 18.6 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Geo Mason

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LIU GMU
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 65.4 69.6
% of Possessions with LIU GMU
2 Point Attempt 48.5% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.1% 22.2%
Player Fouled 19.9% 26.9%
Turnover 16.9% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken LIU GMU
Shot Blocked 7.5% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.6% 33.7%