NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTM MTU
Points 75.4 74.0
Total Points   149.3
Points From 2-Pointers 38.8 32.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 29.2
Points From Free Throws 14.5 12.8
Shooting UTM MTU
Field Goals Made 26.8 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 64.1 64.2
Field Goal % 41.8% 40.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 43.5 32.9
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 48.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 31.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 31.1%
Free Throws Made 14.5 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 18.0
Free Throw % 75.6% 71.4%
Ball Control UTM MTU
Rebounds 40.8 39.8
Rebounds - Defensive 31.0 29.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 10.2
Turnovers 8.7 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.7
Steals 4.3 4.4
Fouls 13.5 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Middle Tenn

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTM MTU
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 74.9 75.1
% of Possessions with UTM MTU
2 Point Attempt 51.0% 38.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 36.7%
Player Fouled 18.7% 18.3%
Turnover 11.7% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTM MTU
Shot Blocked 7.4% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 24.7%