NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTM MORE
Points 69.7 81.2
Total Points   150.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 34.5
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 36.1
Points From Free Throws 14.6 10.6
Shooting UTM MORE
Field Goals Made 24.1 29.3
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 64.2
Field Goal % 39.5% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 30.3
2 Point Shooting % 42.8% 56.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 12.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 33.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 14.6 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 14.5
Free Throw % 75.6% 73.2%
Ball Control UTM MORE
Rebounds 35.5 40.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 30.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 10.1
Turnovers 8.6 8.5
Blocked Shots 2.1 5.1
Steals 4.7 5.2
Fouls 12.0 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Morehead St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTM MORE
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 73.2
% of Possessions with UTM MORE
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 36.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 41.1%
Player Fouled 20.5% 16.7%
Turnover 11.9% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTM MORE
Shot Blocked 8.0% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 27.3%