NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTM WIU
Points 72.8 73.8
Total Points   146.6
Points From 2-Pointers 38.2 40.7
Points From 3-Pointers 21.9 22.7
Points From Free Throws 12.7 10.4
Shooting UTM WIU
Field Goals Made 26.4 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 66.0 66.5
Field Goal % 40.0% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 44.7 43.0
2 Point Shooting % 42.7% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 12.7 10.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 16.7
Free Throw % 75.6% 62.4%
Ball Control UTM WIU
Rebounds 38.4 44.7
Rebounds - Defensive 28.3 30.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 13.8
Turnovers 7.5 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.9 6.1
Steals 5.5 4.4
Fouls 12.7 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: W Illinois

Expected Effect: +1.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTM WIU
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 74.9 77.2
% of Possessions with UTM WIU
2 Point Attempt 52.7% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 27.0%
Player Fouled 17.8% 17.5%
Turnover 10.4% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTM WIU
Shot Blocked 9.2% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 32.8%