NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJSU USU
Points 65.2 80.8
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 42.7
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 20.6
Points From Free Throws 8.4 17.5
Shooting SJSU USU
Field Goals Made 24.8 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.2 54.4
Field Goal % 41.8% 51.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 21.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 49.4% 58.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 8.4 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 12.3 24.1
Free Throw % 68.6% 72.5%
Ball Control SJSU USU
Rebounds 27.9 38.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.7 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 6.2 8.5
Turnovers 9.4 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.5
Steals 4.4 4.6
Fouls 16.5 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: San Jose St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJSU USU
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 69.1
% of Possessions with SJSU USU
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 31.1% 22.9%
Player Fouled 18.2% 23.8%
Turnover 13.5% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJSU USU
Shot Blocked 6.5% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 17.2% 28.1%