NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCG NCAT
Points 80.1 61.7
Total Points   141.8
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 28.0
Points From 3-Pointers 33.6 17.6
Points From Free Throws 10.8 16.1
Shooting UNCG NCAT
Field Goals Made 29.1 19.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.8 53.9
Field Goal % 47.8% 36.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 14.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.1 33.3
2 Point Shooting % 54.0% 42.0%
3 Pointers Made 11.2 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 27.7 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 40.4% 28.5%
Free Throws Made 10.8 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 14.8 22.7
Free Throw % 72.8% 70.8%
Ball Control UNCG NCAT
Rebounds 41.3 30.3
Rebounds - Defensive 29.4 22.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 8.3
Turnovers 9.3 8.8
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.0
Steals 5.3 4.7
Fouls 16.0 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCG NCAT
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 67.4
% of Possessions with UNCG NCAT
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 34.4% 26.6%
Player Fouled 18.3% 23.6%
Turnover 13.7% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCG NCAT
Shot Blocked 3.7% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 35.0% 22.0%