NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJSU SDSU
Points 60.7 78.7
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 27.0 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 22.9
Points From Free Throws 8.8 17.5
Shooting SJSU SDSU
Field Goals Made 21.8 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 55.9
Field Goal % 38.6% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 13.5 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 30.4 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 26.1 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 8.8 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 12.9 23.6
Free Throw % 68.6% 74.5%
Ball Control SJSU SDSU
Rebounds 27.7 41.5
Rebounds - Defensive 20.9 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 11.7
Turnovers 10.6 8.8
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.8
Steals 4.2 5.4
Fouls 16.4 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJSU SDSU
Total Possessions 67.7
Effective Scoring Chances 63.9 70.6
% of Possessions with SJSU SDSU
2 Point Attempt 40.0% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 34.3% 25.7%
Player Fouled 19.7% 24.2%
Turnover 15.6% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJSU SDSU
Shot Blocked 7.0% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 18.6% 35.9%